In a regular news briefing on the coronavirus pandemic on Monday, Dr. Jon Samet, the Dean of the Colorado School of Public Health presented several models that show how the epidemic may play out in Colorado. In a graphic summarizing the modeling, Dr. Samet listed that “In most scenarios, we expect the next peak to be larger than the April peak.”
The models that Dr. Samet was using are based on assumptions about how many people follow social distancing recomendations. If the state’s residents maintain a 65% percent rate of distancing, then the hospital system can handle the COVID-19 patients.
If fewer Coloradans adhere to the current health guidelines, and social distancing reaches 55% or even 45% this summer, the modeling shows that hospitals will be overwhelmed and run out of ICU beds by about mid-August.